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By djembefeeling
#34986
death toll from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa officially climbed above 1,000 up to 1,069. that means, in just one week more than a 130 people died on Ebola.
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By michi
#34987
Yes, it's not looking any better right now :( In the west, a disease such as this is fairly easily contained, and won't spread anywhere near as fast, due to better hygiene and sanitation. Plus, not many people hug or kiss corpses in the west, particularly when it was ebola that produced the corpse…

Michi.
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By djembefeeling
#34996
Just heard a shattering report on a German TV station on the situation in West Africa:

http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/ebola- ... a-101.html

Finally, after all these month, Guinean president Alpha Condé declared a national state of emergency. Prizes for food is rising substantially. Many experts believe that the official numbers substantially understate the size of the outbreak, because of families' widespread reluctance to report cases:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/scien ... .html?_r=0

People are so frightened now, that public life is coming to a halt, especially in Sierra Leone. The qualification for the Africa Cup is coming to a halt, because countries don't permit entry of teams from Ebola infected countries or teams like that of Togo refuse to play in Guinea.

German government called for it's citizens in those countries to leave.
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By michi
#34998
These reports are really sobering :(

The irony is that, following inaction, the actions that are now taken may well cause more damage than the disease itself :(

Michi.
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By djembefeeling
#35032
Almost 2500 cases and 1350 deaths in total as of August 18: that is 500 new cases and 280 deaths in just one week. Guinea isn't the hot spot any more, but even there new cases are climbing. Does look like this tragedy will continue deep into next year.

The German Welthungerhilfe, one of our biggest private organisations for development and humanitarian aid, talks about a humanitarian crisis in the making. Sierra Leone and Liberia, after the devestation of civil wars, is again thrown back in social and economic development for several years, they say. The situation on food is getting more severe.
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By djembefeeling
#35090
a shattering report, indeed. but I don't interpret it only in terms of a lack of (western) education. the case in the Senegal is a student from Conakry who concealed the fact that he was under surveillance for being in contact with another victim of ebola. I think they are really scared. I would be REALLY scared to be taken into such a quarantine station. I'd suspect that if I didn't catch ebola before, there I would.

and the incident in Nzekore also tells us about the dimension of people's distrust in any official organization. I've heard that there is a lot of tension between ethnic boundaries and clans within Guinea. there might be the danger of a civil war in some not so distant future if the thin layer of nationalism melts further away and the economic situation continues to get worse.
Last edited by djembefeeling on Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
By michi
#35139
This is really sad to watch. It also goes to show how economic weakness gives a huge advantage to a disease. With more resources and better education, this outbreak would have largely been a non-event. And now, the economic situation is getting even worse because of the disease, and round and round we go :-(

Michi.
By bubudi
#35141
someone at abc needs to check their calculations because 5 weeks ago when sierra leone and liberia declared a state of emergency, there were about 720 deaths and 1300 cases in west africa. according to latest reports from w.h.o., there have now been 1840 deaths and about 3700 cases. this represents a 155% increase in deaths and 180% increase in cases.

despite the average 50% mortality rate we can deduce from these stats, medecins sans frontieres, which is the aid organisation seeing the most cases, says that 80% of patients with confirmed ebola have died in west africa. w.h.o., m.s.f. and red cross all say that cases continue to be severely under-reported and even more so the number of deaths. we know from the previous outbreaks in the congo that there was about 90% mortality rate which is more in line with what m.s.f. reported in west africa. even though the ebola strain in west africa is not the same as the one in the congo, there are indications it has been just as deadly. the difference is that in the congo the residents, including traditional villagers, were familiar with the virus and already had quarantine procedures in place. aid money went on treatment, staff and supplies, much earlier and with better cooperation from the people.

in the three worst affected countries (guinea, liberia, sierra leone), there is a huge lack of clinics (one doctor to 100,000 residents most of which are located in urban areas), other health staff, security personnel to enforce quarantining, and medical supplies including personal protective equipment. the corrupt governments in these countries have squandered aid money from individuals, organisations and foreign governments. aid organisations are dropping off vast supplies of p.p.e. and other essentials but reports from nurses who have had a recent strike in sierra leone due to this and many other shortages in the anti-ebola fight are that the p.p.e. making its way to their clinics are substandard.

another scary development is the spread of ebola to senegal. it remains to be seen how well their government and health system will respond.

5 weeks ago w.h.o. estimated that at best-case scenario, the outbreak will continue for another 6 months if systems were to be vastly improved. in light of shocking reports in the past 5 weeks this outbreak is likely to extend far beyond that.