The Elections in Guinea

[James]

I have been doing a bit of research on what's happening in Guinea at the moment. Here's a few usefull links for anyone who's interested.

First Place Winner Threatens to Boycott Run-Off Polls

Guinea run-off vote set for 24 October

Guinea hopes for and end to Military Misrule

The truth behind the blood bath in Guinea

[the kid]

cheers dude.

Lets hope peace prevails everywhere

[michi]

More violence ahead of the elections

Guinea police open fire in fatal clashes with demonstrators

Michi.

[Paul]

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/File ... 0Army.ashx

This is the back ground to the problem of military rule there, its a bit more academic.. but I find BBC to have a bit of an agenda on some topics, especially the middle east.

You should also look at whats happening in Ivory coast at the same time.. Its interesting that they are having the first real elections at the same time as they were like chalk and cheese when they went into independence.. Boigny of Ivory Coast remained closely affiliated with France while Toure basically told De Gaulle to go to hell..

If your interested I have access to some more academic stuff, but crisis group are pretty on the ball.

[michi]

That made for extremely interesting reading, thanks for that!

BTW, the elections have just been postponed again, this time to 31 October:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201010200991.html

Michi.

[michi]

Yet more violence in Guinea in the past few days, with reports of looting in Conakry, Siguiri, and Kankan. But it looks like the election might actually happen this Sunday.

Living in hope that things will settle down… But, even if the election happens, it's anyone's guess what might happen after that. I can see lots of unrest due to claims of election fraud, etc.

Michi.

[michi]

New election date apparently is 7 November.

The UN reports that at least 1,800 Peul fled Kankan, being chased out by Malinke.

Michi.

[michi]

Three more days to go...

Looks like the people who were displaced by the violence will be able to vote, provided they have identification:

Guinea election boycott threat is averted

Violence derails Guinea polls

The Carter Center is ready to monitor the elections:

Carter Center Announces Runoff Election Observation Team

Let's hope that it will actually happen this time, and that it will happen peacefully. It would be a truly momentous event for Guinea to become a democracy...

Michi.

[michi]

It looks like it might actually happen tomorrow:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11696566

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/11/150461.htm

Fingers crossed. Not just that the elections happen, but that the loser will accept the result...

Cheers,

Michi.

[michi]

Apparently, yesterday's elections went over without major incident:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/11/07/general-af-guinea-election_8083261.html?boxes=financechannelAP

Let's hope that things will remain calm once the result is announced...

Michi.

[Marc_M]

More info

Guineans await presidential election results by holding vigil outside vote count centres http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i46W2jswXCrt8j9IOZS2_6WKQ3VQ?docId=5080245

[michi]

Guineans await presidential election results by holding vigil outside vote count centres

Sounds a bit like a powder keg

Michi.

[bops]

I am so worried for Guinea right now.

This sums it up (from the article Marc linked to):

"This could be the calm before the storm," says Raphael Ouattara, the director of the local office of the National Democratic Institute. "There's been an ethnicization of the vote — a polarization. Each side is convinced that it's in their interest for their ethnic group to be in power. We need to watch over it like you would watch a pot of milk on the stove ... And what no one has a handle on is the army. Will it stay out of this?"

I'm really, really hoping for a peaceful conclusion to this. However, if history serves as an example, that may not be what ultimately transpires.

[michi]

I'm really, really hoping for a peaceful conclusion to this. However, if history serves as an example, that may not be what ultimately transpires.

I think the chances of a peaceful conclusion are damn near zero. I do not see how this could play itself out without more violence over the near term. Almost certainly, whichever side wins will take it as a license to victimize the other side

I was planning to go to Guinea in January but that looks extremely unlikely at this point Maybe next year...

Cheers,

Michi.

[Paul]

Doing some intense reading about this at the moment.. How was this supposed to pan out.. What country in the history of the planet did 'democracy' ever just happen like that. Dictatorship one minute and hey lets all just get along the next.. There are forces at work worse than the military i'm afraid.. This region has become the centre point of cocaine trade to europe and some people are getting seriously fat off that.. This is globalisation, mexico now borders guinea..
Senegal and other countries have finally expelled the last french colonial garrisons but who is moving in to take up the mantel???

Praying that i'm wrong!!!